We’ve got another night of what should be more NBA drama and excitement, with the Atlanta Hawks taking on the Philadelphia 76ers in Final Game 7 of the Eastern Conference.
As you’ve probably guessed, the Sixers are big favorites to secure their spot in the conference final, where the winner will face the Milwaukee Bucks. Currently Philadelphia is a 7 point favorite on the spread line and -275 on the moneyline.
In Saturday’s other conference semifinal game, Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks advanced with an overtime victory in Game 7 against the Brooklyn Nets.
Basketball analysts Kenny Ducey and Brandon anderson Did you cover their best bets for the Hawks vs Sixers contest, one targeting the total and the other focusing on one side. Let’s see their choices.
NBA odds and selections
Atlanta Hawks vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Kenny Ducey: In my research before this game, I found that the total seems to go both ways in 7 games, and if anything, the top has been the better game. It seems the narrative that scoring will slow down because there is so much at stake is nothing more than a mistake.
That being said, I see the underside as a strong game. By removing the narrative here, we can say with certainty that the Sixers’ defense has lived up to this series against a very dangerous Atlanta team.
After narrowly missing the regular-season defensive efficiency crown by 0.2 points per 100 possessions, the Sixers allowed just 107.9 points per 100 possessions in the playoffs on two legitimate gun offenses. Trae Young has had his moments, but the Atlanta shooters have been pedestrians for the majority of the series, save for a few big halves.
On the other side of the ball, however, the Sixers really struggled to find their identity. Without Danny Green and with poor play from Tobias Harris, Seth Curry became this team’s secondary scoring option. Seth Curry! I’ve always believed, but it shows how this team has nothing in attack without Joel Embiid. The same is true of the fact that Tyrese Maxey was dusted off in Game 6 to play 30 minutes.
I love these two guys, but it’s hard to say this attack is going to light up Atlanta given the number of question marks. It doesn’t even mention that Embiid is also hampered by a knee injury. All signs point to another sub and a rock fight in Philadelphia.
Atlanta Hawks vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Brandon Anderson: Oh baby. One final Game 7 to wrap up what turned out to be a wild, unpredictable and epic second round of the NBA playoffs.
The Phoenix Suns have easily advanced into what appears to be several seasons ago, but the other two series went on for a long time and were both won by the underdog with huge road wins late in the series. I bet on one more to complete the round.
Let me be clear. That’s not to say the Atlanta Hawks are the better team. They are definitely not at this stage. When Joel Embiid is playing, looking healthy and engaged, the Sixers look quite dominant at times. It’s only fitting that Philadelphia wins the double-digit half when things click like that in the series.
Seth Curry reversed every shot. Tobias Harris sometimes stepped up his efforts. And now Tyrese Maxey could be the X Factor. The Sixers are home with a boisterous crowd and the host wins nearly 80% of all 7 games.
Philadelphia is absolutely the favorite here, and the Sixers should win. In fact, I considered taking Philadelphia to another top line. It’s entirely plausible that Philly will take Atlanta off the field. The Sixers have done that to the Hawks at times in this series, which makes it look like a shift. And it’s very common for 7 games to be wary for a while and then the home team have a big run in the third quarter and the visitors run out of gas. And this is it.
If you follow this choice, you should know that it is a very realistic result and that this bet looks bad.
However, the key is the price. With +250 odds the Hawks have an implied 29% chance of winning this game and I’m just not sure how we can give them such low odds at this point in the series. We saw how Trae Young can get hot and then slice and dice that tusk. And we know he won’t blink under the pressure of Game 7 on the road.
We’ve seen Kevin Huerter and John Collins have some great times, and we’ve seen the Hawks run great runs and pull out the Sixers crowd. We’ve also seen Philadelphia turn freezing cold. We’ve seen Ben Simmons withdraw from the game altogether, and we’ve seen Joel Embiid “not having it” some nights when fatigue sets in or that knee bothers him.
There are just too many outs for Atlanta not to take it at +250. And honestly, I won’t be afraid to wait a bit and / or increase my position early in the game even if Atlanta lags early.
Seven of the last nine playoff games have been won by the late team at halftime, and this streak has been defined by big points. I think there’s a good chance the Hawks will drop early as Embiid is at his best and the crowd is involved. So, don’t hesitate to wait and bet on an even longer number in the first half.
Maybe something like Philly goes up eight to 10 points and now your odds could be doubled or better. The Sixers can detonate any pellet or become cold at any time.
Of all the possible outcomes, I still think a resounding victory in Philadelphia is the most likely of them all. However, given the odds that lie ahead, I have to give the Hawks a better chance than this +250 prize, so I’m rolling the dice and backing the underdogs. You should too.
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