This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
Don’t forget to check out our weekly football betting show Kits and betswhich covers Premier League betting every week of the season. This week the guys touch Manchester City against Tottenham, as well as the return of Monday Night Football between Leeds and Nottingham Forest.
It hasn’t been seven days since Gameweek 6 ended, but Chelsea lost in the Champions League and sacked Thomas Tuchel the next morning. Liverpool have been blown out by Napoli, although Jurgen Klopp is still in charge. Manchester City and Arsenal were the other two teams that traveled for the UEFA game, but as usual it will be difficult to project any rotation in league play.
The good news is that my bet is rolling. I was so confident last week that I took two parlays and both hit. Well done.
File: 17-9-1. Up to $697 on bets of $100.
Best EPL bets for Wolverhampton at Liverpool
Under 2.5 goals between Liverpool and Wolverhampton +150
I wrote this bet before Liverpool looked incompetent at the back in Wednesday’s defeat at Napoli. I still believe in it, mainly because there is almost no chance that Joe Gomez will start after making blunder after blunder in the loss to Napoli. Joel Matip is healthy again and is set to link up with Virgil van Dijk against a side that have struggled to score for many seasons. Either way, I think the Wolves midfielder could have an advantage in this game given Liverpool’s injuries and that will be enough to tame the Reds at Anfield. The odds suggest that Liverpool are in form and scoring in clusters, which they are not. I would also consider Liverpool win zero if you can find it, although many sportsbooks no longer offer it.
Best EPL bets for Aston Villa at Leicester City and Brentford at Southampton
Parlay: Aston Villa double chance -185 against Leicester City and Brentford double chance -165 against Southampton = +147 odds
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I put my betting streak into play with some maybe crazy double chance games. I still think Aston Villa are a solid team and they will figure things out, which they did somewhat against Man City in the last game. Regardless, Leicester City are a bit of a mess and with the transfer window closed they can’t do anything to boost their back line or their confidence apart from banking on newcomer Wout Faes. Villa have a better team overall and I think they can get a point there because their first problems were scoring which may not be a problem at Leicester.
Taking Brentford is a bit more risky but I don’t think Southampton have a huge advantage at home and they are still in play to allow last-minute goals due to poor set-piece defence. I take Brentford mainly because I think Southampton are still getting a little too much love after their win over Chelsea. While betting on two away teams in a parlay is stupid, I don’t think Leicester or Southampton have huge home-field advantages.
Best EPL bets for Brentford at Southampton
Over 2.5 goals between Brentford and Southampton -122
If you don’t want to bet on Brentford, you might get better odds on the pluses. I’m surprised it’s close to evenness between these teams, as neither has shown much consistency defensively. I like Brentford more with Pontus Jansson but their back line always seems to loosen up if the game is down and Southampton will have chances. Southampton have played a bit more defensively and that works for them to some extent, but I think the absence of Romeo Lavia (and Oriol Romeu) is going to cost them dearly in the next few games. I also like the odds difference, as both teams score -160.
Best EPL bets for West Ham at Newcastle
Under 2.5 goals between Newcastle and West Ham at -110
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This game is hard to read and I’m writing this ahead of West Ham’s game on Thursday, but they’ve been a bit more focused on keeping teams rather than scoring each other lately. They had a slow start and sometimes that’s the best way to earn points, even though they were unlucky to lose to Chelsea in the last game. Newcastle are not complete and not the same away team but I think West Ham’s poor form mixed with the way Newcastle want to play will result in a close game. Neither team has a huge advantage and I think it’s 1-1 all (+550). Instead, I’m going to grab nearly even odds on under 2.5 goals.
Best EPL bets for Manchester United at Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace Draw No Bet against Manchester United +150
It’s a tough place for Manchester United. They returned to European competition this week against Real Sociedad and now travel to face a tricky Crystal Palace side. They are slowly learning to play under Erik ten Hag and that is leading to wins, but I think the extra rest for Palace will be an advantage there. I would go with the simple double chance, but it’s at -145 so I’m taking the lame Draw No Bet option at +150. I think Palace have enough to win at home, but I’ll still get my money back if it’s a draw. Palace are a good home team and as long as they don’t make mistakes behind their backs, like recent opponents Man United, they will be in for three points. It should be noted that Man United are one of the more public teams and you can usually get better odds if you get their opponent closer to match time.
EPL Gameweek 7 betting picks
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- Under 2.5 goals between Liverpool and Wolverhampton +150
- Parlay: Aston Villa double chance -185 against Leicester City and Brentford double chance -165 against Southampton = +147 odds
- Over 2.5 goals between Brentford and Southampton -122
- Under 2.5 goals between Newcastle and West Ham at -110
- Crystal Palace Draw No Bet against Manchester United +150
Adam’s betting history (for this article)
2021: 88-92-8. Up to $222 on bets of $100.
2020: 78-91-1. Up to $228 on bets of $100.
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