The relegation chances of each Premier League club


Manchester United made the worst possible start to the Erik ten Hag era on Sunday.

All the hope and excitement that accompanied their impressive pre-season campaign was erased in an instant as the Red Devils suffered the first defeat at Old Trafford in their history against Brighton & Hove Albion.

Two first-half goals from Pascal Gross highlighted United’s problems with construction play and defensive organization as they floundered to a 2-1 defeat in which Alexis Mac Allister’s own goal hardly spared their blushes.

Terrible start for Man Utd

Obviously it’s still early days and United’s sides have even won the Premier League after losing their first game of the season, but it’s a worrying start to the campaign nonetheless.

As such, the pressure is on for Ten Hag to turn things around and really start impressing his football philosophy on United players before another season begins to pass by the club.

Moreover, opening with a 2-1 loss to Brighton leaves the Old Trafford club in rather unique circumstances when it comes to their statistical hopes for the 2022/23 campaign.

Each club’s chances of relegation

This is because data analysts from FiveThirtyEightwho use a complex algorithm to predict potential outcomes in the beautiful game, don’t exactly give an optimistic outlook on how United’s year might unfold.

In reality, their statistical model for the 2022/23 Premier League season after the first round of matches, the Red Devils are seen as more likely than Brighton to face relegation.

Ten Hag’s men are actually slapped with a 5% chance of qualifying for the Championship, which we know is ultimately impossible, but which nevertheless paints a damning picture of where United stand today.

However, before making too many assumptions about United’s awkward start to the season, make sure you get the full context by seeing how data analysts rank the 20 clubs by how likely they are to drop out in 2023.

20. Manchester City:

Soccer Football – Premier League – Manchester City v Aston Villa – Etihad Stadium, Manchester, Britain – May 22, 2022 Manchester City’s Jack Grealish celebrates with the trophy after winning the Premier League REUTERS/Hannah Mckay EDITORIAL USE ONLY. No use with unauthorized audio, video, data, fixture lists, club/league logos or “live” services. Online use in match limited to 75 images, no video emulation. No use in betting, gaming or single club/league/player publications. Please contact your account representative for details.

19.Liverpool:

18.Chelsea:

17. Tottenham Hotspur:

16.Arsenal: 1%

15. Brighton and Hove Albion: 4%

Brighton score at Man Utd.
Soccer Football – Premier League – Manchester United v Brighton & Hove Albion – Old Trafford, Manchester, Britain – August 7, 2022 Brighton & Hove Albion’s Pascal Gross celebrates scoring their first goal with Lewis Dunk, Danny Welbeck and team mates REUTERS/Toby Melville EDITORIAL USE ONLY. No use with unauthorized audio, video, data, fixture lists, club/league logos or “live” services. Online use in match limited to 75 images, no video emulation. No use in betting, gaming or single club/league/player publications. Please contact your account representative for details.

14.Manchester United: 5%

13. Villa Aston: 8%

12. Newcastle United: 10%

11. Leicester City: 10%

10. West Ham United: 12%

Moyes of West Ham against Man City.
Soccer Football – Premier League – West Ham United v Manchester City – London Stadium, London, Britain – August 7, 2022 West Ham United manager David Moyes after the match Action Images via Reuters/Peter Cziborra EDITORIAL USE ONLY. No use with unauthorized audio, video, data, fixture lists, club/league logos or “live” services. Online use in match limited to 75 images, no video emulation. No use in betting, gaming or single club/league/player publications. Please contact your account representative for details.

9. Brentford: 12%

8. Crystal Palace: 13%

7. Wanderers of Wolverhampton: 17%

6. Leeds United: 24%

5.Everton: 26%

Everton's Lampard in the Chelsea defeat.
Soccer Football – Premier League – Everton v Chelsea – Goodison Park, Liverpool, Britain – August 6, 2022 Everton manager Frank Lampard acknowledges fans after the match Action Images via Reuters/Molly Darlington EDITORIAL USE ONLY. No use with unauthorized audio, video, data, fixture lists, club/league logos or “live” services. Online use in match limited to 75 images, no video emulation. No use in betting, gaming or single club/league/player publications. Please contact your account representative for details.

4. Southampton: 32%

3. Fulham- 35%

2. Bournemouth – 36%

  1. Nottingham Forest – 55%
Forest lost their opening game.
Soccer Football – Premier League – Newcastle United v Nottingham Forest – St James’ Park, Newcastle, Britain – August 6, 2022 Nottingham Forest’s Jesse Lingard and Harry Toffolo look dejected as Newcastle United’s Fabian Schar celebrates scoring the first goal with his team mates Action Images via Reuters/Lee Smith EDITORIAL USE ONLY. No use with unauthorized audio, video, data, fixture lists, club/league logos or “live” services. Online use in match limited to 75 images, no video emulation. No use in betting, gaming or single club/league/player publications. Please contact your account representative for details.

Embarrassing for Man Utd

You know it’s bad when United have quintupled the chance of dipping into the English second tier as clubs in the ‘big six’ that have a 1% chance at best.

As we say, the Red Devils simply won’t fall, but the larger theme here is that the stats really don’t favor their chances this season with their top four prospects capped at 13% and their title shots slammed at just

However, the data doesn’t just do the rounds for United, as it also paints a worrying picture for Forest following their Matchday 1 defeat, contrary to many fans’ optimistic predictions for the promoted side.

Man Utd's Ten Hag at Old Trafford.
Soccer Football – Premier League – Manchester United v Brighton & Hove Albion – Old Trafford, Manchester, Britain – August 7, 2022 Manchester United manager Erik ten Hag reacts after his team conceded the second goal REUTERS/Toby Melville AT EDITORIAL USE ONLY. No use with unauthorized audio, video, data, fixture lists, club/league logos or “live” services. Online use in match limited to 75 images, no video emulation. No use in betting, gaming or single club/league/player publications. Please contact your account representative for details.

Meanwhile, Villa are still on solid ground despite a reality check at Bournemouth, Leicester look set for a tumultuous season further down the table and Frank Lampard’s Everton have a big target on their backs.

But remember, stats aren’t everything in football and there’s still nine months of action to play, so there’s still plenty to do while we wait to see who goes down.

Will PSG sign Rashford? Fofana £80m! Tielemans 25m offer! Aubameyang (Soccer Terrace) Update


News Now – Sports News

Previous Supporting an underdog football team taught me to celebrate life's small victories
Next Medals for the Medium Green and Large Green Pony Hunters and Jumping Pony Team shine on Day Four of the 2022 USEF Pony Finals Presented by Honor Hill Farms